WEALTH CYCLES, SEE IT
Debt Refinancing Cycles
Liquidity comes in waves. Your job is to know which way the wave is breaking.
Cycle Aware Investing framework
The full liquidity cycle, expansion and contraction, updated automatically from official data.
Your Learning Journey
This page
A self-updating evidence page showing where we are in the debt refinancing cycle. Updated nightly from official data. No login required, no subscriptions.
Why this matters
When governments refinance debt, central banks tend to print. Knowing where you are in the cycle beats trying to predict it. The goal is not to call the top or bottom, but to reduce surprises.
Where we are now
Debt Wall Builds
Updated 17 hours ago, next update 02:00 AEST
Liquidity score
+30
5 of 7 signals confirm this phase
Direction
Falling 1 month
The debt cycle wheel
Eight phases, four in the expansion half (blue) and four in the contraction half (red). Tap any phase to read its story, what to watch, and historical parallels.
Tap a phase to preview its story
Phase 1-4 Expansion: Debt Wall Builds
Governments accumulated debt during the previous cycle and it is now approaching maturity. The refinancing wall is rising, meaning a large volume of bonds must be rolled over in the coming quarters. Central banks are still in neutral, but the pressure building on the fiscal side will eventually force their hand. This phase is often quiet on the surface but marks the beginning of the next liquidity event.
Signals confirming this phase
Australian context
For Australian investors, a rising global debt wall tends to keep global rates sticky and supports a strong USD, which pressures the AUD. Australian dollar-denominated assets may underperform global peers in this phase until the pivot arrives.
What usually comes next
Next phase: rates bite
- •Global debt maturity volume crossing $6T in 12 months
- •Government budget deficits widening
- •Treasury auction sizes increasing
Historical parallels
Past periods when signals matched a similar phase. Bitcoin performance in the following months.
This is a simulation of past patterns, not a prediction or financial advice. Ripper Wealth is an educational platform, not a licensed financial adviser. Always consult a qualified professional before making investment decisions.
How the phase is computed
Each signal contributes a score. The phase is the one whose net score has been stable for 30 consecutive days (hysteresis prevents false transitions).
Show signals used to compute this phaseTap to expand
| Signal | Live value | Weight | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fed balance sheet YoY | +0.4% | +18 | |
| Global M2 YoY | 0.0% | 0 | |
| Global debt maturing next 12 months | $144.1T | +12 | |
| Front-end rates direction | +37 bp | +8 | |
| Real yields 10y | +1.5% | -5 | |
| Broad Dollar Index (DTWEXBGS) | 118.4 | -3 | |
| Fed Reserve Balances YoY | -40.7% | 0 | |
| Net score = +38 expansion and -8 contraction | +30 | ||
All signal weights and thresholds are editable in Supabase Studio. No deploy needed. Request another indicator
Wealth Cycles, See It: Debt Refinancing Cycles
- Debt cycles alternate between expansion and contraction. Both halves are worth understanding.
- The current phase is determined nightly from live signals, not editorial opinion.
- Both forks matter: knowing what confirms the current phase and what would flip it is the useful insight.
Homework
Which half of the cycle is your portfolio positioned for right now?
Revisit this page when the liquidity score crosses +60 or falls below zero. Those are the transitions that historically move asset prices.
What's Next?
10 minutes
Educational platform only